| >Actually Korean industry experts expect that SMIC will probably be able to create 3nm and 5nm without access to EUV[1] machines. This guy claims that 7nm is the last feasible node with DUV only[2], but what does China care about the infeasibility of the node? Very well said actually, I didn't want to speculate further, but I certainly do think that it's probable SMIC will squeeze more than 7nm out of DUV if they can't acquire EUV, in that case it's no longer a matter of reasonable cost/yields. >DUV is blocked through sanctions as well. Please don't make misleading claims. Apologies for the poor wording, but this was neither supposed to be misleading nor is, to the best of my knowledge, misleading in the sense you imply. I am fairly certain I read about DUV deliveries sometime in 2020-2021 and according to this[1] the ban on DUV only effectively starts this year. My point was that that they weren't blocked from DUV, as in in the past, and that allowed SMIC and China in general a lot easier access to DUV. It's only with EUV that we could talk about actually developing a native capability alone. >And yes TSMC was indeed producing 7nm using DUV before using EUV, but that doesn't mean that our wonderfully talented politicians and think tanks understand any of that given that just last year these geniuses were gloating that the export controls would throw back Chinas access to advanced chips decades. Not the way I would phrase it, but I would be hard pressed to disagree. [1] https://technode.com/2023/09/04/asmls-export-of-chip-making-... |
This is an interesting point. Considering the extremely difficult engineering problem of the ASML machines, China might opt for an entirely different technology that, although more expensive and impractical for those with access to ASML EUV machines, could eventually allow them a better evolutionary path towards smaller geometries.
Blocking access to tech can have unintended effects.