[caskstrength]

> I downvote it because it’s been repeated a dozen times and there’s a lack of intellectual honesty to say that a prediction that Russia wouldn’t invade is the same as spreading Russian propaganda for deliberate and malicious reasons.

It wasn't just a good-faith prediction, he was quite cocky and arrogant about that[0], including, ironically, accusing others of amplifying disinformation campaign:

"So... if nobody shows up for the invasion Biden scheduled for tomorrow morning at 3AM, I'm not saying your journalistic credibility was instrumentalized as part of one of those disinformation campaigns you like to write about, but you should at least consider the possibility."

At the same time he didn't appear too fazed by the invasion after it had begun, just casually accused others of concern-trolling[1] and "happily and thankfully" accepted Russian citizenship[2].

> I can’t be bothered to explain it more than this because any ability to not see this means I’m wasting my time explaining it further

I'm engaging in this discussion constructively and provide links to support my position. You preemptively accuse me of willful ignorance, but after re-reading his tweets I still stand by my words.

[0]: https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016

[1]: https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1498049577131208705

[2]: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/02/edward-snowd...

[phatfish]

I'll be charitable by assuming that people here are getting defensive by their hero not living up to expectations. Snowden is (justifiably) angry about the US treatment of him and happily amplifies Russian propaganda as some sort of badly considered revenge.

It's a shame that he uses his platform for this, especially as the current propaganda is in support of Russia rolling their tanks across the border and killing thousands of people in Ukraine.

[InSteady]

Also worth noting that it is strongly in his interest to craft and filter his public dialogue with the interests of the Russian state in mind. It is a basic fact of his existence, whether it is something he thinks about explicitly and often or not. Of course Russia isn't going to execute him or throw in in a gulag, since he is more valuable to them as a political set-piece that somewhat undermines America's moral high ground. However, that doesn't mean they can't lean on him considerably and make his life severely unpleasant in myriad subtle ways. There is no way he isn't acutely aware of Russia's reputation for brutal coercive tactics regarding their political enemies and targets, especially domestic ones.

He is completely at their mercy and he knows it. What is he going to do, cry out to the world that Russia is hounding and harassing him, or otherwise making his already beleaguered situation even less tenable? First of all, who is going to care that can do anything about it, second, it will delight people he almost certainly views as his enemy for him to make any such pleas and thirdly, it starts down a path of no return to start calling out Russia for abuses while you are stuck there with no allies and no way out.

Being on reasonably amicable terms with the power-elite in Russia is pretty much the last, best hope he has in this world. Whether consciously or not, the severe ramifications of burning that bridge are going to weigh on every decision and proclamation he makes. Of course he may always consider this effect and choose actions that upset Russia/Putin without regard for personal consequences. But it becomes increasingly easy to justify the path that doesn't lead to the complete crushing of your spirit the longer you have lived your life staring down the barrel of 5 or 10 different shotguns trained right between your eyes.

And of course it gets easier still when you feel wronged and martyred by the enemy of your friend, even if that friend is born purely out of necessity and circumstance. Anyway, all that is to say, thought I am grateful for his attempt to protect American citizens' constitutional rights and hold the government that professes to fight always for freedom to a higher standard... I have to take anything he has said in recent years as extremely biased and a product of "soft" but very serious coercion (from multiple fronts).

[pseudalopex]

Arrogance does not disprove earnest belief. Snowden's comments before the invasion disappointed me. But many others said similar things. And I don't believe he owes Ukraine effective statelessness. Did he say anything about the war in 18 months?

[caskstrength]

> Arrogance does not disprove earnest belief.

I'm not saying I'm absolutely positively 100% sure that he intentionally shills for Russia, but consider that he has been in Russia for quite some time now but only got the passport after he started tweeting from pro-Russian angle.

> But many others said similar things.

Yeah, but I kinda expected more from him than "US bad, then Russia must be good".

> Did he say anything about the war in 18 months?

I'm not aware of anything after his initial "okay, I won't talk about it anymore since you ghouls are concern-trolling me after I got this one wrong", but I'm not really tracking his hot takes on social media anymore. I think he recently switched to well-articulated and insightful commentaries on US preparing to attack China or something...