[Hermitian909]

I agree with this directionally but think you're a little over-pessimistic.

First, IME it suffices to join an organization poised for rapid growth. This can still happen in large tech companies.

Second, while luck matters, there's also stuff you can do to increase your chances of being picked for career growth roles. I'm at a growth company. Recently a relatively new engineer was picked to lead a project over some more tenured, well-liked folks who wanted it. The new guy got it because he has done some really incredible work recently and then marketed it internally well enough that management (and engineering) all agreed he'd be the perfect fit. Politics, making sure that resources are allocated the way you want them, is a skill all its own.

[giantg2]

I guess degree of pessimism is an opinion that depends on how shitty one's experience has been.

[Hermitian909]

Sure, it is entirely possible to get screwed over with no recourse. That said, my lived experience is that most of the time people in high growth orgs think they're being unfairly screwed they're really grappling with their revealed preference to stay in their comfort zone rather than obtain career growth.