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by joshuahedlund
1013 days ago
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Yes, you are absolutely correct. This is exactly why the UN has predicted a slowing of population growth with an eventual peak of 10-11B in several decades. However this article is suggesting a much more drastic slowing and much lower peak. I am interested in the evidence or assumptions that are different between these two forecasts. |
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https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-update-2022
> Its previous release projected that the world population would be around 10.88 billion in 2100 and would not yet have peaked.
> In this new release, the UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century – in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people.
> There are several reasons for this earlier and lower peak. One is that the UN expects fertility rates to fall more quickly in low-income countries compared to previous revisions. It also expects less of a ‘rebound’ in fertility rates across high-income countries in the second half of the century.