[dragonwriter]

> Because one is confirmed and the other one is fantasy

One is a reasonable prediction of what would happen if there was no longer a marginal threat of US escalation constraining it because the US decided to escalate fully without it, the other is a non-sequitur in this discussion.

> Cartels have no nation-state level power

Nation-state isn't a power level, and if it was, well, the Mexican cartels do have power which rivals nation-states, and in any case international criminal organization don't require the power of a nation-state to do any of the things described, as history has repeatedly shown.

[foogazi]

> the Mexican cartels do have power which rivals nation-states,

Not the Mexican state in terms of firepower & resources

> and in any case international criminal organization don't require the power of a nation-state to do any of the things described, as history has repeatedly shown

No Mexican drug lords dare show their face in public for long - they operate in the shadows. There are no strongholds, no cities, states out of reach.

The moment they become popular it’s time to lay low

[dragonwriter]

> Not the Mexican state in terms of firepower & resources

Much of the firepower and resources of the Mexican state (not “firepower and resources equivalent to the much of that of the Mexican state”, but “much of the exact firepower and resources notionally attributed to the Mexican state”) are in the hands of the cartels.

Symptomatic of this is the arrest by the US of the former Mexican defense secretary in 2020 on charges related to cartel involvement (against whom charges were dropped under intense political pressure from the Mexican government, including reported threats to expel the DEA entirely and end all anti-drug cooperation with the US) and the subsequent arrest by the US, and conviction earlier this year, of the former Public Security Secretary (and, before that, head of the Federal Judicial Police), also on charges of working within the government for the cartels.

> No Mexican drug lords dare show their face in public for long - they operate in the shadows. There are no strongholds, no cities, states out of reach.

To the extent this is true, the threat within Mexico largely comes from other cartels, whether working through organs nominally in the service of the state or otherwise. Sure, individual high-value targets tend to make some effort at opsec, but the cartels as a whole operate openly, in some areas with enforcers in marked vehicles, with the Mexican Army doing nothing but helping keep the peace between major cartels by enforcing cartel territorial boundaries.