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by Cushman 1018 days ago
> It should make sense by now that if you lose, and play again, you can expect to lose again, despite still having a positive EV on the toss.

Too late to edit but I feel like I should highlight this more, because it looks like the place something would be swept under the rug:

Yes, the individual who wins two flips in a row is still ahead even if they lose the next two flips. If they win the first four, they can afford to lose three more.

And if they win the first five, they can afford to lose… still only three. Five to four no longer breaks even.

That’s the thing that, if it doesn’t seem intuitive, is a meaningful insight. “This +EV dynamics is not ergodic” means:

In the limit, a) the individual who wins every single coin flip can afford to pay the losses of everyone else and profit, and b) no other individual breaks even.