This will increase Android's lead over iOS. Samsung's lead is over 3x bigger than Apple's in China, and it keeps growing. Apple only has about 7% market share there.
What we've seen in the US is that Android's market share lead eroded as the iPhone became available on more carriers. You may expect that trend to continue as they fill out tiers they aren't competing on.
Considering that not being on China Mobile in China is the equivalent in the US of being exclusive with Sprint... you'd imagine the same thing will happen in China once "the new iPhone" comes out with China Mobile.
Which isn't to say Apple will win China's market share, they'll probably still trail but their disadvantage is less then you're suggesting here except in the short term.
[edit] Even in the short term I doubt it's accurate because iPhone just launched on China Telecom in the last two weeks so that effect has yet to be fully seen. [/edit]
The iPhone started selling on Verizon in Q1. There was a small dip in relative Android sales, but not many. The only time the iPhone came close to Android in sales was Q4 2011 after nearly 1.3 years of pent up demand for an upgrade.
Edit: Looking at graph again, in Q1 2011 android:iphone sales ratio significantly decreased. Android went from a 2.5:1 to just under 2:1
In China, a poorer country, I'd suspect Apple will never come close due to its large premium over medium-end Android devices.
Android had a 34% market share lead in Q4 2010 and a 22% lead in the iP4 launch quarter prior.
After opening on Verizon at highest tier only in Feb 2011, that lead "eroded" immediately to 24% and 23% for the following quarters.
Q3 and Q4 2011 it's well known that iphone sales lagged waiting the new phone and then surged but taking these quarters together you get a gap around 19-20%.
How is that "really not true" to say that Android's lead eroded when that's exactly what your chart shows?
Sorry, I was interpreting your word 'erode' as sharper than I should have interpreted and was looking at Android market share among all platforms. You are correct; after the Verizon launch, the ratio of Android:iPhone sales fell significantly.
For a platform the third party ecosystem is super important. That is most affected by # of users * how much each tends to pay. iPhone uses tend to be willing to pay more than Android users, but at some point the sheer number of Android users can make Android win out.
Considering that not being on China Mobile in China is the equivalent in the US of being exclusive with Sprint... you'd imagine the same thing will happen in China once "the new iPhone" comes out with China Mobile.
Which isn't to say Apple will win China's market share, they'll probably still trail but their disadvantage is less then you're suggesting here except in the short term.
[edit] Even in the short term I doubt it's accurate because iPhone just launched on China Telecom in the last two weeks so that effect has yet to be fully seen. [/edit]