| The "AI" bubble has some similarities but also important differences from the "crypto/blockchain" bubble and the brief "metaverse" mania. The similarities are sort of obvious. The real economy is in a precarious state worldwide. Geopolitical strife, political polarization, exhausted and confused households, still reeling from the pandemic. All in a background of a deteriorating environment that either burns to ashes or is swamped by plastic. This is our real condition and there is no turnaround in sight. Yet the "optimism" and valuations must keep up or the system will collapse for good. The reliable pony delivering tricks is the tech sector. Being unregulated/oligopolistic with massive rent extraction, operating in an entirely virtual realm and by now controlling all digital communication channels it has massive resources and opportunity to pump up every nugget into a digital gold rush and it does so shamelessly and with predictable regularity. So what is different between these serial bubbles? crypto and metaverse require massive social and/or behavioral change. If you look at the problems that blockchain was supposed to solve, all of them would be solvable with lower tech if people actually had an interest to solve them. There far easier ways to make the monetary and financial systems more fair and honest than inventing a poor simulacra. The metaverse requires a collective migration into a fake reality. People are increasingly escapists and absurdists but strapping a heavy idiot-signaling device on your head is a virtual bridge too far for most. "AI" is a better fit to the status quo. Grabbing any and all accessible data and algorithmic manipulation of people is already enshrined as acceptable practice ("people so much enjoy the convenience"). So imho this bubble has some legs. Which means the fall will more painful when it happens. What will burst the bubble? Regulation on data collection and possible applications is one possible balloon prick. The other one is commoditization. Commoditization is an interesting one. If there is any silver lining in this dismal doom tech era we live through it is the fact that major information processing and communication capabilities are being built. It is conceivable that at some point these will be deployed in very different ways and with much bigger positive impact. |