[martindbp]

You can always find some earlier example of a tech that lost. But if you invested in the first company to mass produce a car (Ford) you'd have done well. If you invested in the first of its kind smartphone (Apple) even better. Likewise there's been a lot of early failed AI startups in the past 20 years that you could point to, and now OpenAI is hitting it out of the park, expecting a billion in revenue next year on a pure AI consumer product. I think that shows this time is different.

[eastbound]

But each revolution is a multiplicator. A company making a billion a year is dime a dozen today. If they really were onto AI, then they’d be projected to make a trillion a year.

[harry8]

this is another way of saying "If you invested in the first one to be successful." Well yeah. Obviously. Time machines work great for investment decisions.

edit:

Whether it was first or not the nokia N95 was a smartphone and was definitely before the iphone. Forgotten like every earlier loser I guess.

[olalonde]

The point is that there is no way to tell whether a company will become one of the "early failed companies" vs "the first one to be successful". Your strategy is not actionable.

[harry8]

"Don't throw money at a new sector of transformative tech looking for first mover advantage because you'll lose."

Seems actionable to me, was it not clear?

You've got to do a lot more, you've got to pick ford will win. Even if you're 100% the tech is massively transformstive. The winners to pick may not exist yet.