[ethanbond]

I think what people were tuning into more so than “how good are the models” was “how quickly are the models getting better?”

The jumps from ~nothing general purpose/consumer-facing to GPT3, 3.5, Copilot, GPT4 all seemed enormous and pretty much back-to-back. Extending that curve points to some pretty extreme destinations (positive or negative), but now the sentiment seems to be that curve was a bit of a mirage.

I intuitively share the view that that curve was a mirage (and a byproduct of years of R&D backlog + OpenAI’s release cadence) but that isn’t coming from any rigorous analysis.