[jamesaurichs]

1.) "The demand side is mostly people buying second and third units as investments." that is incorrect. Most purchases are first purchases from couples that want to get married, and a home purchase is a required dowry from men that they need in order to get approved for marriage from the parents.

There are famous online videos from newlyweds that purchased a condo from a few years ago, and have been documenting their journey, and they still haven't received the unit. Meanwhile their kid was born already.

2.) Yes, just google "empty kindegardens in China". Also, marriages dropped to the lowest since records began in 1986. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/14/marriages-in-c...

3.) Nope. China’s government land sales revenue declined for the 19th consecutive month in July. Land sales fell 10.1% from a year earlier in July, after declining 24.3% the previous month https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-landsales/chin...

The Chinese local governments' bonds alone total at about $2 trillion, and any defaults would rock the Asian nation's $60 trillion financial system, according to Bloomberg. https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/chinas-10-t...

[arthur2e5]

Note that recent low birthrate i.e. (2) does not immediately map to shrinking real estate demands: young people born 20-30 years ago are still moving to cities, looking for a job, and a place to sleep in, hopefully with not-too-long commutes. There will still be a bunch of young couples trying to get a home and being ruined by unfinished construction like you've mentioned.

[bobthepanda]

Youth unemployment stopped being published after it skyrocketed to 20+% this year. They also no longer have the means.

[arthur2e5]

Young people in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Xiamen/Amoy haven't had the means for a flat since... at least 6 years ago, when the per-square-meter price broke CNY 50 K. It's been understood as "maybe my parents have some savings from the 拆迁 demolition money for the down payment" sort of deal since then.

Smaller cities are more possible though.

* * *

Tangential: a good part of everyone's income in those big cities goes into rent and mortage, from the average worker to the restaurants and shops downstairs. It's always been screwed.