[lyjia]

the market sees a 13% chance of a favorable outcome

[raincole]

PSA: this is not how stock price works.

[petesergeant]

I thought it was; help me understand where I'm wrong.

[raincole]

I mean, yeah, the more optimistic the market is, the higher the price goes. But comparing % like this doesn't make any sense.

If the price rises by 120%, the market see a 120% chance of favorable outcome?

[quickthrower2]

The probability distribution is not binary win/lose