[mrshadowgoose]

Out of all the nebulous carbon offset schemes that exist today, afforestation seems to be one of the least scammy options if ones adjusts for the fact that "future value" != "present value". Even the uncertainty of the long-term success of afforestation projects can be statistically modelled and incorporated into an adjustment factor. However, nobody is going to willingly do that, so even those types of offsets will remain dishonest.

Absent regulation, carbon offsets are a race to the bottom in producing the cheapest "offset" just hovering above the threshold of "fraudulent".

Direct air capture with long-term sequestration, performed prior to the sale of a carbon credit, is the only scheme that is remotely close to being fully honest.

[paulmd]

I am very dubious that afforestation won’t be logged or burned at some future date, which I assume is what you refer to as the “long term success” of these.

From what I’ve seen people tend to be happy to take the money and they just burn it next year.