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by FBT 1022 days ago
The problem is that while it's an impressively close approximation for an off-the-cuff guess (at least if we charitably translate his "dozens"/"dozen" to 12), to the extent it was pre-planned it's a terrible approximation. ~50 years as a lifetime is the right order of magnitude (and thus a very good result for a guess), but is too far off to be any good if precalculated.