Well, he was stupid enough to take a "deal" from Putin and then not disappear from the face of the earth. What he was doing hanging out still in Russia after his coup attempt is just... insane.
He was also stupid enough to get in a private plane and fly over territory that has Russian SAMs. With the crap going on in Moscow from those drones, and the absolute inability for Russian air defense to de-conflict an airspace, pretty much nobody should feel safe in a plane in the air in Russia.
I don't think he had a whole lot of options on that. But on the insurance bit he did and if there was any kind of pre-arrangement I would expect it to come out. And if it doesn't we can put that conspiracy to bed.
Completely hearsay at this point, but a telegram channel linked above is saying that wagner has a contingency plan that will be "activated" following confirmation of prigozhyn and other leader's death. Maybe another move towards Rostov. Again, hearsay, but last time it was pretty spot on
I would be surprised if that weren't the case, but then again, it may have been arranged but it won't be acted upon. It will be an interesting time in Russia in the next couple of months, but this sort of domino stone kicking could well have unintended consequences.
It is unbelievable to me that he would've betrayed Putin and not expected something bad to happen.
But it is not so unbelievable that he never betrayed Putin and his expectations were irrelevant, because he was following a path with no forks or alternatives.