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by kgwgk
1035 days ago
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I don't get it. If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a boy you will say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 2/3. If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a girl you will say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 2/3. If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a [unintelligible] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3? Edit: If you're going to say that [unintelligible] could be anything other than boy or girl - and are not willing to assume that it has to be one or the other consider the following alternatives: If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a [word in a foreign language that you know that means girl or boy but you don't remember which one] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3? If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is [of the same sex as the first child of some other person that you don't know] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3? |
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