[musictubes]

As soon as a critical mass of carriers across the world adopt esim the space will absolutely be used for something else. Apple is forcing the issue, trying to force carriers to adopt it. No other phone company has the leverage that Apple does. They have a lock on the majority of high value customers. A carrier that does not support the latest iPhone will lose customers to one that does. I expect more countries to be esim only for the iPhone 15. I think China will be the big issue, don’t think any carriers there support it. And of course the carriers there aren’t exactly subject to competitive pressures.

As to why Apple is pushing esim I can imagine several reasons. Number 1 is just the space in the phone itself. I also think that Apple would love a world where people didn’t go the carrier stores. More people would buy directly from them and then get pitched all the Apple stuff instead of the carrier’s. Everything from accessories to insurance. I do think the world will much better once carriers are reduced to utilities and I think widespread esim usage would go a long ways towards that.

[zarzavat]

This assumes that carriers want to go eSIM only. Do they? What’s in it for them? They will lose customers with older phones.

iPhones are irrelevant in most of the world. Unless Samsung and Xiaomi decide that they also want to ditch physical SIM, it’s not going anywhere.

From the perspective of the rest of the world, eSIM-only phones seem bizarrely crippled. Why would I want a phone that I can’t use in every country? Just another case of the US not understanding the rest of the world.

[musictubes]

Oh, the carriers hate it. Apple is the only company that can bend the carriers to their will. China is their one market they can’t lord over the carriers. How will they lose customers with older phones? The carriers can still offer SIM cards alongside eSIM.

I think you’ll find that iPhones are used all around the world. They are ubiquitous in the US so people tend to scoff at them being held up as a status symbol but they absolutely are in the world at large. If you look at who is using iPhones in the countries you say the iPhone is irrelevant in you’ll see it is the wealthy and the ones that want to emulate them. Those are the customers the carriers want to have. hell those are the customers every company wants. My guess is that Apple is giving carriers a few years to get on it before being left behind by iPhone users.

I wonder if Apple has any other long term plans with esim? Will they have their own MVNO offering? It would fit in with their services expansion goals.