[coldtea]

>If you are a target, how likely is it that whoever's after you only has control over the coffee shop wifi, but not over the possibly untrustworthy VPN provider?

Because I'm not talking about some state actor. Just the kind of people (some stalker, private dick, con artist or script kiddy looking for a random target and see you with your laptop, whatever) that might want to eavesdrop on your IP visits while you're on a coffee shop.

There are several cases for which a VPN offers some protection, and the ones I mentioned are among them. If the agency/person you're a target of also controls the "VPN provider" you have bigger problems than choice of VPN.