[bulatb]

You're standing in a four-lane road and see a car approaching. You're looking at an angle and the lanes are poorly marked, so you can't tell which one it's in. Your observation lets you estimate the chance you need to move at 25%.

When it gets a little closer, you can tell at least which half it's on, the left or the right. Now your estimate is either 0% or 50%.

Closer still and you tell which lane it's in, so now you're sure.

[s1artibartfast]

again, that makes perfect sense.

What wouldn't make sense is if you repeat this 1000 times and a car is never in your lane.

That means that something is wrong about how you are modeling the road and cars.

The claim that people are confused by is (asteroids with a 3% chance of hitting get the change revised to 0% more than 97% of the time).