[aaron695]

> This makes sense, thanks.

It makes no fucking sense.

There is 3% chance it'll be revised to 100% chance and 97% chance it'll be revised to 0% chance.

Are you Yogi Berra?

It'll be reported like possible hurricanes hitting landfall.

If this has happed ~33 times then one will hit us.

If it's 400m it will kill 200,000 people assuming Vox is reporting correctly - https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/7/26/8931776/near-ea...

That will be 9 in 10 it hit's boring ocean and looks cool on satellites and one in 10 kills 2 million people and there will be some cool live streams.

Or the 3% in the title is a lie.

[jryb]

> If this has happed ~33 times then one will hit us.

There would be a ~63.4% chance that at least one would hit us if this happened 33 times. To compute this, take 1-(0.97^33). But I agree with your broader intuition that these predictions must be getting inflated.