[Leary]

Found this tweet with an impact probability map that is around northern US/Asia/Europe : https://twitter.com/JoelSercel/status/1691549821629526219

"If it is real this IS the worst asteroid threat ever discovered and the impact location and times are ugly (will post pics shortly). Note that the impact is in the next couple days! However, an Italian colleague of one of our astronomers suspects there is an error in the reported observations and there has been no chatter about this object and no followup. This probably means that it is not real. " - Joel C. Sercel, PhD

I'm guessing the impact death area will be around 3600 km2 (I have no idea, please correct), so ultimately the chance of it falling on me is 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000 provided the asteroid hits. Which means 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 10,000,000 in total? (assuming 1% hit probability)

[pdabbadabba]

What should we make of the fact that this tweet has since been deleted?

[DouweM]

With this retraction at https://x.com/joelsercel/status/1691588629079138391:

> I would like to make an apology to the small body community. Some information was shared with me on an internal company message board that I did not have full perspective on and I posted a tweet, which I now understand was not appropriate. It was preliminary data and I did not have full perspective on it.

“Preliminary data” is not very reassuring.

[radicaldreamer]

Pretty concerning update imo ^^

[tophi]

There is a disclaimer from the data source: “Scout data are about unconfirmed objects and all information should therefore be treated as potentially unreliable”

I’m hoping this ztm0038 is an error or hoax.

[ortusdux]

Do NEOscan and CNEOS share data? They have slightly different details:

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/ZTm0038

[noduerme]

If I'm looking at the time chart correctly, that basically corresponds to "daylight hours", when you're facing the sun, tomorrow within the northern hemisphere...

[radicaldreamer]

We should look for secondary evidence, did the gov start continuity of gov operations etc. If it is real and if nothing can be done about it, we cannot expect official confirmation.

[noduerme]

Well, that map tweet has now been deleted, and the guy posted this:

>> I would like to make an apology to the small body community. Some information was shared with me on an internal company message board that I did not have full perspective on and I posted a tweet, which I now understand was not appropriate. It was preliminary data and I did not have full perspective on it.

Does that sound like everything's gonna be okay?

[onlyrealcuzzo]

If it hits the ocean, how big will the tidal wave be?

[radicaldreamer]

Not that large, I think ocean impact is best case scenario (<1% of kinetic energy transferred).

Land impact would be catastrophic (1x-100x 50 megaton explosion)

[Mrkvak]

Is there any chance of you having a screenshot?

[judging_you]

Someone on twitter managed to grab them: https://twitter.com/s53001/status/1691615280726704235