[mindslight]

It seems that the scenario Cowen put forth and the St. Petersburg paradox are not quite the same? In St. Petersburg (at least as Wikipedia describes it) you walk away with the accumulated winnings, whereas in the example put forth if you lose you walk away with nothing.

I was wondering because it would seem with Cowen's example the expected value is just $1 (ignoring the 51% edge). The 51% edge ends up making the expected value infinite, so the intuition lines up even though the exact details don't.

[dav_Oz]

I see it as a clever and extreme variation of the same underlying fallacy: a) the favored outcome is slightly more probable (51%) b) the expected value of losing could be expressed as negative infinity

That SBF answered this (rhetorical) question that confidently and quick with not necessarily but what followed was simply something like look on the bright side is effectively imho parroting but at least he handled the verb eloquently. It would certainly take me like 20-30 seconds to process it.