[gymbeaux]

It’s a crapshoot of course, but I tend to agree with a bear case these days. It takes a while for interest rate changes to completely affect the economy and the Fed is still raising rates. Credit card debt recently crossed $1T. Layoffs are still occurring in the tech industry and elsewhere. My thinking is the Fed will overshoot (as it always has historically) with interest rates and when the economy starts tanking like in 2007/2008 they’ll cut back to 0.00 immediately. By then the damage is done, unemployment shoots up, credit defaults shoot up, foreclosures shoot up, and we probably get some deflation.

Except for retirement savings, I’m almost entirely out of stocks… not so much because I think it’s downhill from here for a while, but more because my high yield savings account is giving me about 5% APY guaranteed.