[thefourthchime]

FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy. His reasoning is that the regional banks are being extremely tight with lending right now, and by the fourth quarter many small/medium businesses will have trouble staying afloat due to the lack of financing.

[flaboonka]

I have been watching for that as well, but as of yet there is no sign of it in the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index [1]. Financial conditions are continuing to slowly loosen. But things can change quickly.

[1] https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data

[goodbyesf]

> FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy.

Highly regarded finance guys aren't podcasters or media personalities. If the guy could predict the direction of the economy, he'd be a trillionaire living his best life. Not peddling silly books and hosting podcasts. But then again, jim cramer has a following. How do explain that other than the masses are naive.

> His reasoning is that the regional banks are being extremely tight with lending right now, and by the fourth quarter many small/medium businesses will have trouble staying afloat due to the lack of financing.

He is just parroting nonsense he saw on cnbc or read in a newspaper or on social media. Just like every grifter out there. Do you really think he has inside connections to all the regional banks? To the FED?

[thefourthchime]

Fair, he is a media personality. That said, I've read a Jim Cramer book, I've listened to Dave Ramsey. Those guys are charlatans selling mysterious wisdom and, frankly, bullshit. Clark Howard doesn't do any of that.

Dave Ramsey once said anyone should be able to get a 12% return in a mutual fund. What?? Jim Cramer's constantly picking stocks and is about as good as a drunk monkey with a dartboard.

Everything Clark Howard has said that I've looked at doing, I've vetted and researched. Sometimes he gets it wrong, but I believe he is an honest actor and just trying to help people "Save money, Spend less, and avoid getting ripped off."

Honestly, nobody knows, but I put more weight on his take than most.

[gymbeaux]

It’s already well-known that interest rate changes take a while (months? A year?) to effect the economy. It’s also well-known that higher interest rates hurt startups, “pre-revenue” companies, consumer buying power, etc. So to be bearish right now seems like a no-brainer.

[the_only_law]

A lot of the small businesses near me are already collapsing, though it seems a lot of that is delayed downfall from Covid.

[deadeye]

Where is that? There are lots of regional issues.

[ivalm]

But are small businesses that important at this point?

[thefourthchime]

They employ about half the jobs in America, so yeah.

[weard_beard]

but are the jobs and people who work them that important? that's like, 1/5 of the annual salaries on wallstreet.

[piva00]

Yes, of course it's important, they're people for fucks sake, with lives and salaries for expenses that move the economy.

What does it matter it's 1/5 of Wall Street salaries? Even worse, saying they aren't "important" because of how much they earn, I feel disgusted reading this comment...

[weard_beard]

Perhaps they can eat their many many children…

[piva00]

I really have no idea if you were sarcastic on the previous comment and on this one or if you are just a gaping asshole. Either way it's not really conducive to any discussion.