[senthil_rajasek]

From earlier this year (Jan?),

Michael Burry of ‘Big Short’ fame expects another ‘inflation spike’ after recession rocks U.S.

" Cassandra B.C. @michaeljburry · Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It's not hard.

"

None of these predictions were right.

The lesson here is always do your own homework. Or get a trusted financial advisor.

p.s since his twitter handles are ephemeral I saved the tweet that was attributed to him.

[thunky]

> The lesson here is always do your own homework. Or get a trusted financial advisor

No, because you will be wrong and your financial advisor will be wrong too.

The better lesson is: don't try to outsmart or time the market.

[senthil_rajasek]

Or Do your own homework and you might conclude that it's no use timing the market?

[slashdev]

He can be wrong on the timing but right on the prediction. I think he could still be right here in 2024. Certainly he was right about inflation peaking. So now is that recession still to come or not?

[dragonwriter]

> He can be wrong on the timing but right on the prediction.

The prediction, stripped of timing, is nothing. “Someday, there will be a market crash” is almost certainly true, but means nothing.

[slashdev]

There’s obviously a middle ground between the two extremes, where the prediction would still be significant.

[projektfu]

With options, timing is essential.

[slashdev]

Yes. Although short options aren’t reported. People are assuming this is a bet against the markets, when it could even be a bull put spread betting the markets go up or sideways.

[once_inc]

He was wrong on the timing in 2007 as well. The only reason his short position was vindicated is that he held on despite the protests of his investors. Burry would have been rekt if the collapse had come later.

[slashdev]

He’s famously too early, but often right that something was coming.

Timing the markets is pretty much impossible, even for the experts.

[grouchomarx]

Timing is the whole thing though really