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by bloppe
1046 days ago
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> I am even more concerned that very few people are talking about this. People have been talking about the threat of automation since the very beginning of the industrial revolution. It just never plays out nearly that badly, and short-term disruptions are always outweighed by long-term efficiency gains within ~5 years or so; even those who experience the worst career disruption tend to end up better off within that time frame. I certainly would not like for my career to be disrupted for ~5 years, but the alternative would be worse. |
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That hasn't been my observation at all. In the US, there are large swaths of the nation that still haven't recovered from the last similar event.
To add additional worry, the last time, everyone was told that the way out was to "upskill" into knowledge and service industries. Which a lot of people did, and those people were fine. But what are people to do this time? "Upskilling" back to physical jobs can only absorb so many workers, particularly since there aren't as many such jobs as there used to be.
This is all why I'm so concerned. I don't think history gives us any real reason to be optimistic here. In the very long term -- a couple of generations, say -- perhaps. But in the meantime? Even ignoring the ethics of some people deciding that others are expendable, the people being kicked to the curb will still have to find a way to eat, keep a roof over their head, etc.
If even 10-20% of the population can't do that, we're in big trouble.
All that said, nothing would make me happier than for you to be right and me to be wrong.