[guywithabowtie]

Burry and his Scion Asset Management fund bought put options (contracts giving the option to sell at a certain price) with a value of $886 million against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust which tracks the S&P 500. Scion also bought put options totaling $739 million against against the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ that tracks the Nasdaq 100.

The $1.6 billion Scion spent betting against the market represents 93% of the fund's entire portfolio.

This is a reversal from the bank buying spree Scion went on in the first quarter before economic stress led to the dissolution of multiple mid-sized banks.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have actually had strong years so far in 2023, climbing 17% and nearly 40%, respectively.

[arcticbull]

He probably bought put options with a notional value of $886/$739, but the premium is dramatically less than that. He's not betting more than like 10% of the fund. It's not clear the way the article is written, but the man's crazy, not bonkers. If he spent $1.6B in put option premiums he's playing to be the first trillionaire.

[ilaksh]

How often does the Nasdaq go up 40% and then stay up? I don't really know anything about the stock market, but do you really need to be a maverick to guess that it might go down again?

[unforeseen9991]

The problem isn't knowing it might go down, it's knowing when it might go down, and how far.

[rubyn00bie]

Last year, the entire Nasdaq was rocked with companies like NVidia, Meta, Tesla, Netflix, Apple, Google down anywhere between ~35-70% from their all time highs. A rally of this magnitude is notable, but they're by-and-large just regaining ground they already had (save NVidia which just rocketed past its all time highs). For some perspective on how much those megacaps influence the entire index, the top ten companies in the Nasdaq account for ~50% of the entire index.

[fullstackchris]

that's what everyone said in 99 when nasdaq basically doubled in a year... then continued to more than double the year after that! a lot of guys blew up being too early trying to guess when the selloff would finally happen...

they're called bulls for a reason - they're not the brightest, but you gotta be sure to either join 'em or get the heck out of the way while they're in control!

[andromeduck]

But how much higher can the market really go with interest rates like this?

[aidenn0]

"The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent"

[dragonwriter]

The market did great in the 1980s, and the Fed Funds rate averaged about 10% over the decade and never dropped below about 6%, which is higher than it is today. So, there's that.

[arcticbull]

Since it's right around ATH right now I'd say 100% of the time, give or take.

[0cf8612b2e1e]

What is the expiration date on the puts?

[echelon]

That's not included in the filing.