| A lot of people are criticizing the article without reading it, so some points of the article in short term: 1. Yes, Mark is a hedge fund manager. 2. Yes, his fund is specialized in profiting from crashes. 3. But his advice is actually sound and not an ad for his fund. 3a. He said the excessive debt will make government expenses with the debt itself become too high eventually, forcing the government to stop spending and causing recession. 3b. He said that although his fund does profit from crashes, it is something hard to do consistently and expensive, retail investors should just try to profit. 3c. He said Warren Buffet advice that is good, for example buy a cheap index, and then invest more into the index whenever there is a crash, but never let your money on hand get low enough so you would be forced to sell during the crash. 4. The article was written because the author asked Mark for advice about what to do to prepare for a eventual future crash. Mark was chosen because his specialty in profiting from crashes. 5. The headline while true might mislead people, yes Mark said the bubble is set to pop, he didn't said it will pop soon, in fact he said it will pop "Eventually" and he has no idea when it will pop. And this is why he thinks copying his strategy is useless unless if you are retail investor. |
Professional prognosticators know that for predictions about future events, you should either be specific about the event but vague about the timing, or the other way around. That way you'll often be right and be hailed as a prophet. If you predict something specific to happen at a specific time, you'll usually be wrong and look like a fool.