[criley2]

>If his fee is based on profits, he needs to be correct some of the time. The types of events you mentioned aren't all hype and he can't will them into existence, so maybe he's on to somethin

So all he's doing is timing the market. That's it. And here's the thing: it's impossible. Statistically, he and everyone else are on average bad at it. For example, over the past year he and many folk have predicted recessions, depression, stagflation and even collapse. And here in the US they've been entirely wrong. And if you invested according to them then you lost a lot of money.

The reason why this is a bad investment is because the opportunity cost of what you could be doing with your money during all the time that he's wrong up until he's right. And then you have to hope that when he's right, it makes up for all the time he was wrong. Statistically, it's unlikely.

Your best bet is to make the best investment you can that pays today, not a bet on a payday that could happen tomorrow... Time in the market beats timing the market.