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by gchokov 1046 days ago
All of the doomsayers are once in a while right..
3 comments

Bears predicted 21 of the last 3 recessions; and if you tail a car for 500 miles you will give it a ticket.
But does it happen in a statistically significant way?
2s-10s is remarkably accurate for predicting recessions. For returns over 10 years or so CAPE is quite good, stocks/(stocks+bonds+cash) is very good.

But you cannot make statistical claims about such numbers, the calculations are done over the entire very small population (if you want to abuse the maths a bit and call a time series a population), not over a sample.

There is very little difference between being early and being wrong.