[albertTJames]

This must be one of the stupidest article I have ever read.

The first page only shows they have absolutely no clue how statistics works. Of course if you consider every events in the universe completely independent the probability of any large combination of those will be very low. But it is of course not the case with all the conditions they describe, those are highly correlated and P(A|B)P(B)>P(A)P(B) for all of those.

[inimino]

> For each step, we estimate a probability of success by 2043, conditional on prior steps being achieved. [emphasis added]

Maybe your reading comprehension is the problem.

[albertTJames]

You are absolutely right. AGI is already here anyways.