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by avmich
1044 days ago
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> Both were late What was the "determined" date to have them ready? How do you know they were late? Judging by Elon's estimates? > I wouldn't say that Falcon was built expressly for humans You know of course that requirements for the rocket to launch people are different from the rocket to launch only cargo? There were cases when non-human-rated rocket became human rated (at least Proton), but these days it's better to plan ahead, like teams working on Arian-5 (and also Dream Chaser, not a rocket) do. I'd assume Flacon-9 developed from the beginning in such a way so at least human-rating would be possible - if not built-in already. > It spent a decade proving itself before it flew with people. That's not a _new_ launch vehicle. I'd agree regarding Falcon-9. Starship is another story. |
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Crew Dragon was approximately 3 years late, from the original planned launch date of 2017 to the actual date of 2020. Given that the contract for the missions were awarded in 2014, it's a miracle that things have proceeded at the pace they have.
> You know of course that requirements for the rocket to launch people are different from the rocket to launch only cargo?
I'm well aware of the differences. I work in this industry. That said, SpaceX made the wise decision to cut their teeth and prove their design on cargo first. That's not a new launch vehicle by definition. They were launching rockets regularly for years before they put people on the pointy end. Most other human-rated rockets in recent history have _only_ launched humans. I'm neglecting older, converted ICBMs like Redstone and Titan. The only standout from this list is probably Soyuz (the R-7 derivative launch vehicle), which has been kept going through sheer inertia.
> I'd agree regarding Falcon-9. Starship is another story.
I suspect that Starship will be years behind schedule before it even launches cargo. I suspect that it will miss NASA's planned lunar landing date, but it won't be at fault because other parts of the program will suffer even worse schedule slips. I understand that people are hopeful that this really will revolutionize spaceflight, and I count myself in that group too! Reality has a way of intruding eventually though. I want SpaceX to build, fly, and trash as many unmanned Starships as it takes to make it reliable. That will cause some level of delay because they'll find something new in the testflights that will necessitate a redesign before it kills someone.