Human-rating the then-new Falcon 9 launch vehicle was part of SpaceX’s award for Commercial Crew starting in 2011, and the launch vehicle did not delay the program, so I think it counts. Falcon 9 had flown twice when NASA made the initial award, it certainly wasn’t a proven launch vehicle and it’s easy to imagine it tanking the whole program if it went differently.
Flown twice is still pre-existing---the vehicle had been in development years before the award. If your point is that the Falcon was pre-existing and it still took a long time to get to crewed flight, that's true. But note that the adage doesn't say the launch vehicle is the only source of delay, only that it is generally the most significant one.
A better counterexample would be a crewed program that developed its own launch vehicle and still completed on time and within budget. If you treat the Falcon 9's development time as part of the overall project (which you should if you're maintaining it's a new vehicle per the adage), then you're looking at something like 15 years just to get a crew to orbit. Which is consistent with the rule.
Yep, they didn't develop a new booster or stage 2 for Crew Dragon. No new launch vehicle.
Starship is likely to be similar. Super-Heavy (the launch portion of the combined vehicle) isn't likely to be scrapped for the crew version after the cargo Starship is ready.
I'd consider development of Crew Dragon to be rather fast - because, in the condition of a private development, it wasn't done before. Comparing to other spacecraft developments, in late 1950-s there was a race, USA vs. USSR, to put a man in space "soonest", and it took Soviets ~3.5 years from the launch of the Sputnik to send Gagarin to orbit. So, just a few short years... and a large government backing.
Still, given that Crew Dragon was developed by a private company and is quite modern judging by performance, I think it's a good result.
Compare the budget of SpaceX to NASA's up to and through Mercury. NASA's experience was one of something never having been done before compared to the experience of SpaceX seeing many others doing it just needing to tweak the formula to make it affordable. Also, without NASA's burden of being a government pork/jobs program rather than being a streamlined process
You may underestimate the complexities and pace of development at SpaceX. And it can similarly be said that NASA's Mercury program was built on the shoulders of previous achievements in parachutes, heat shield, control etc. SpaceX does use the experience gained in the industry over half a century with a lot of efforts, but that doesn't mean they don't push the progress with their own work.
I think the difference between the “private” development of Dragon and the “government” development of Mercury is exaggerated.
Like Dragon, the Mercury capsule was (mostly) designed and (entirely) built by a private contractor, McDonnell Aircraft.
Like Mercury, Dragon was designed and built with input and strict oversight from NASA, including a contingent permanently on-site with the contractor. NASA always had total visibility and the final say on everything.
There are some important differences in the contracting models of the two programs, but a lot of the “private”/“commercial” framing of the ISS crew/cargo programs is just leftover vibes from the 2000s when ”harnessing the dynamic private sector” was the way to frame a new program that you wanted to get funded.
> Like Mercury, Dragon was designed and built with input and strict oversight from NASA, including a contingent permanently on-site with the contractor. NASA always had total visibility and the final say on everything.
I think that's not a contradiction to the Dragon being designed by a private company in a different, organizationally, way than Mercury was designed by a private company.