[tim333]

I agree and I'm not sure the economic arguments along the lines of "overaccumulation crisis" have much predictive value, similar to much economic theory.

I also visited China fairly recently, China in 1983 and other culturally Chinese places like HK, Singapore, Taiwan and western areas. My take is the Chinese are a generally a hard working educated people who will do well given the chance. In 1983 the place was reduced to 1$ a day type poverty by Mao style communism. When Deng Xiaoping dropped that and allowed normally capitalism and trade the place boomed as the population started catching up with their cousins abroad.

Now Xi who is a Mao fan is rolling back some of the economic freedom such as arresting the AliBaba guy, and threatening the neighbours militarily which is causing the rest of the world to cut back on trade such as the US moving chip production away. I hope Xi doesn't go too nuts politically and start WW3 or something but otherwise I think China will do ok but not boom quite like the pre Xi period.