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by ironborn123
1038 days ago
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No,even though the 10 pikachu fans assess independently, their estimations will be correlated. As you may already know the overall estimate wont be 100%, rather about 65%. The formula when the assessors are known to be independent, is simpler and has already been indicated by another commenter, P(A1 or A2 or A3 or ..An) = 1 - P(not A1)P(not A2)..P(not An) On the other hand, if those 10 were engaged in complete groupthink (so no additional information beyond the first guy), the overall estimate would remain 10%. In general, the answer would lie between 0.1 and ~0.65 depending on how their estimates influence each other. |
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