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by dcow 1041 days ago
What? Your model doesn't make any sense if you don’t know how to combine probabilities.

Furthermore, you can’t just say “I understand things semantically different than everyone else talking about probabilities so when I say the probability of two events happening is 20% I actually mean something completely different and my math works this way I invented to describe why my messy naive intuitions about probability don’t match the reality of how probability works”.