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by whimsicalism 1047 days ago
I think this culturally comes from lesswrong and it really makes me laugh every time I see it
1 comments

Yeah, Scott Alexander wrote a whole article about how people should use made up fake statistics instead of simply saying "I don't know"[1].

[1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/05/02/if-its-worth-doing-its...

Not always. "I don't know" is identical to saying "I have a uniform prior". In the particular case of LK-99, my prior is perfectly uniform - I know absolutely nothing about the subject matter and almost everything I read on the topic feels way above my head. As I refuse to be influenced by experts (or "experts") until there is some sort of consensus, I have absolutely no good reason to say anything but "I don't know".
A perfectly uniform prior suggests that you think that it's easy to make a room temperature super conductor and that people have made them before with equal likelihood to it being hard to make a room temperature superconductor and people haven't made them before, doesnt it?

I don't know much about superconductors, but I do know that people have been trying to make them work at room temperature, and generally failing