[neovialogistics]

You're arguing that annexing Taiwan and then refraining from redirecting industrial output/revenue towards the Chinese domestic market* will be a net profit for Beijing.

There's a big hole in that argument: annexation is not free. It has costs: the destruction of infrastructure assets, loss of life, capital flight, skilled labor flight, private sector boycotts, the burden of new sanctions and the expenditure of military action, occupation and administration.

The only reason to annex a country is if the expected gains offset these costs. Therefore, looting.

*This is what I mean by looting.

[brmgb]

China knows that and doesn’t want to annexe Taiwan through violence. They would much prefer Taiwan to join with minimum damage. That’s always been their play book.

It is flexing right now because one, there might be a window of opportunity as the US is modernising its navy, two, it’s a way to keep Taiwan under the current status quo at time when American diplomacy has stepped up its own aggressive posturing towards China, three, it’s useful for Xi internally.

China is not trying to redirect Taiwan output to the mainland. As I said, Taiwan is right next door and already has a mostly integrated economy. They want to fold the island into China proper.

Taiwan is not and never was an economic annexion for China. That’s not the point. If you start from there, you are doomed to be wrong.