[quags]

As a 90s kid a remember peak oil. It was taught every where except in one class - economics. The teacher was adamant we would never run out of oil because as the supply dwindled the cost would go up and new oil or other forms of energy would be found. Makes perfect sense now but at the time this was not the norm. Economics ended up being my favorite class. Slightly related he also predicted the internet bubble collapse as I was explaining how I as a teenager was making money on the internet doing nothing in 99 - and his response was that will end because you don’t get money for nothing forever.

[jfengel]

"Someone will do something" isn't especially good economics. It's just wishful thinking.

Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. It's a bad idea to plan on it.

[mistermann]

In this case it was predicted in a specific context though, and he was correct. Do you wish that he was thinking wishfully perhaps?

[jfengel]

He didn't predict the specifics, like fracking. If he knew that it would become economical, good on him for knowing more. But that's a matter of geology and petroleum science; it couldn't be predicted purely from the economics.

I point it out only to say "somebody will do something to fix climate change, so don't worry about it" is not a sound position either. The economics predict there will be reactions, but they include a lot of suffering. Dealing with it sooner rather than later will reduce the suffering, and we've already lost a lot of time.

[mistermann]

> I point it out only to say "somebody will do something to fix climate change, so don't worry about it" is not a sound position either.

That wasn't his position though. His comment had specific context, your critique did not.

Otherwise I absolutely agree with you, my thinking is that humans should try precision in communications (more popularly known as "pedantry", except when scientists do it) about these wicked problems because what we're doing now seems to cause more harm than help, and as you say time is of the essence.

[sandydan]

Yes peak oil is a good example of predictions being wrong, it does not mean anything for other predictions of doom.

Dire warnings about things going on in Europe in the 1930s proved to be very true and incredibly costly and horrible for most everyone and from talking to people that had to deal with the aftermath.

[mistrial9]

What if we are wrong?! we made the world better for nothing!

[quags]

I hopped on the comment on peak oil because it was something that I had not heard in long time and I remember the discussion being so out of left field that an alternative idea was never brought up - and it was done under a capitalistic economic model based on supply and demand. I’m not saying we should look at all predictions as potentially wrong. I personally believe in reducing consumption especially along the food chain like a reduction in meat and other animal products as well as ensuring seafood is done sustainably.