From the NASA article: "The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects."
I feel like there must be some other influence here, and the Tonga eruption is a good candidate. That's not to say this isn't already exacerbated by existing human-derived climate change, but the way the temperature leaps off the chart starting in April is not like the gradual upward trend we see with climate change. It makes utterly no sense from that perspective. Something external to climate change has to be influencing the system.
Unfortunately, it also seems like a lot of people are hesitant to even discuss this possibility for fear of being ostracized by the mob.
“ Unfortunately, it also seems like a lot of people are hesitant to even discuss this possibility for fear of being ostracized by the mob.”
This assessment is the same that a climate denier would make - it’s essentially climate gas lighting. Why do I say this?
Because the real reason it’s hard to discuss events with nuance is the highly vocal contingent of climate deniers that are looking for any single word or event that can be twisted to obfuscate the issue - first deny climate change, then to claim it’s not that bad etc etc.
That is the actual reason people are careful discussing climate, nothing to do with fear of ostracism. they’re rightly worried that the vocal anti-science people will twist their words.
The only people who fear getting ostracized are those doing the word twisting, the others are simply hesitant to give the Ron desantis types sounds bites to twist.
Apparently warming is compounded by the eruption, low sulphur shipping fuel rules, low amounts of Saharan dust and changes by El Niño according to this:
It would seem then that this year is yet another early warning sign. Perhaps we got lucky to get a glimpse of what is coming and in a sane world, this would motivate us to finally take real and significant action. Unfortunately, the last few years have demonstrated that we clearly don't live in a sane world and of course, we'll ignore this warning too.
There's something called a tipping point, and it can result in exactly that sort of sudden rate of change increase entirely due to a certain threshold being breached.