[dirtyid]

That's a trivial / statisically insignificant issue - foreign visitors on exit visa shit list is triple digits (less than rounding error) and most know they're on shit list and wont return unless coerced too. Other groups of concern are those PRC doesn't want in country anyway, they'd get filtered out at VISA stage. Not to mention majority of inbound visitors to are predominantly diasphora not tourism.

Biggest issue is ticket price to PRC exploded especially Q1 (range of this article) right after end of zero covid and PRC consulate have massive backlog of visa and paperwork to process. Most of the diasphora I know wants to return but won't because too expensive or can't because paperwork. There's also UKR war + US/PRC disputes over resuming flights drama with respect to overflights over RU territory = current US to PRC routes was like 5% precovid a few months ago.

WSJ article trying to imply marginal foreign tourism numbers is a problem - then admits it impacts PRC little relative to tourism dependent countries). Meanwhile PRC domestic tourism surged due to people being stuck in country (covid controls + now expensive tickets). Relatively RoW has much more problem with lack of PRC outbound tourist then PRC lack of inbound tourism what is also backstopped by raising domestic tourism.

[livueta]

I won't argue about how big of an issue it is relative to the other factors you mention, but there absolutely has been an upswing in willingness to fuck with members of the business community who'd previously largely been left alone. Like you say, in 2015, you were probably fine unless you were up to something really shitlist-able; doubly so if affiliated with a major western multinational. That appears to be getting less true, with an exec from Astellas and professionals from Mintz and Bain getting nabbed: https://www.economist.com/china/2023/05/04/a-battle-against-...

I spent a fair bit of time in Shanghai 2017-2019 for work, have a 10-year unlimited entry visa, and won't be going back for that and a few other reasons.

[dirtyid]

Yes I acknowledged that in another reply, new national security mandates while finally allowing foreign payment on wechat&alipay. PRC fine with foreigners, including business community, but on their terms. Which is basically don't be a spy or conduct activities counter to PRC interest. Including foreign compliance workers in country to help enforce increasing US sanctions - no reason to make it easy. People who do that while in PRC frankly should be scared shitless. Ultimately, no different from early 10s western NGO crack down and CIA network purge. TLDR is foreign intelligence network got rebuilt over time, hence MSS responds.

Same with US/west increasingly prosecuting PRC espionage (sometimes bordering on witchhunt - see China Initiative). Counter intelligence activity is up on both sides due to geopolitical tensions. Western foreign policy push narrative to western media playing up minimal detainment/exit ban threat as part of general people to people decoupling efforts. Record number of established academic / talent from west are flooding back to PRC, student permits to Canada/US about halfed last year. On PRC side, more capital flight. It's happening on both sides.

What's a bigger problem, capital flight and PRC not getting some tourists or western FDI (also miniscule as % of PRC investments), or US losing talent to PRC and unable to brain drain PRC talent. That's up to propaganda from each side to decide. Less people to people interaction isn't the problem to PRC increasing securitization, it's the acceptable cost to reducing espionage which is also happening in the west. Article framing completely/intentionally misses that, while also focusing on group that matters least, western tourists, and not talking about basic macro factors like ticket prices in Q1, and VISA backlog.