in theory yes, but if you own a home with a lower mortgage rate, are you really gonna lower the price of your house, so that you can then buy another home with a higher rate? you may just stay with your lower rate
I would expect other factors to play in a little more, but I can't say they will. (Size, location, etc.)
That is, I don't think moving is usually driven just by prices. Is it? Investing largely is, but investment firms buying up neighborhoods is its own problem.
If price was never an issue, people would generally move a lot more. Move to be closer to school. Move to be closer to a new job. Obviously moving is a PITA and you have things like maybe moving further way from a family etc.. but we can see when the market is rising that quite a lot of people move.
But a lot of these moves are just improvement moves. Move to a bigger place to have more room for kids. Move to a smaller place to save on mortgage for empty nesters. Move to make your 1 hour work commute 15 minutes. People would love to make these moves, but if the money doesn't line up - it isn't going to happen. Very few of these are REQURIED moves.
For sure required moves exist. Live in a studio and have a kid or two. Get a very good job 1000 miles away. Graduate college. But these are not "most" moves.
Makes a ton of sense. My mental model is that I only consider moving for utility reasons, but I think it is undeniable that that is not the main driver there. Would be neat to see full breakdowns on these numbers, but I fully expect what you are describing.
Has some actual numbers that are interesting. Moves slowing down as you age lined up fairly similar to my path, I think my entire life moves were at like:
21, 22, 23, 28, 30, 33, 37...
and I may not move again, or if I do I would see it as 10+ years out.
That is, I don't think moving is usually driven just by prices. Is it? Investing largely is, but investment firms buying up neighborhoods is its own problem.