Simon-Erlich wager is the mother of all cherry-picks. It tracks the decline in oil prices in the 1980-1990 decade from over $110 to $30. Driven by cheap energy, commodity prices declined as well.
There are reasons to believe the era of cheap oil / energy is over, due to a combination of peak oil and the globally connected population growing from 1 billion to 3-4 billions and then some more. Think China + India joining the global economy. Indeed, the oil prices are now close to the Dec 1979 maximum. Commodity prices follow:
