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by unethical_ban 1052 days ago
Tell me I can make 120k a year while training and 200k a year after, with four weeks vacation and top tier health insurance, then tell me where you're located.
1 comments

That is a good way for a company to be better prepared three years from now. Right now, there is a shortage.
So not paying enough 3 years ago caused a shortage now. Yes, there is a pay problem that eventually caused a shortage, got it.
Yes. When USCG rolled out Subchapter M and increased demand, one solution would have been for companies to hire three years previously people that they did not need and find a way to get them the necessary seatime. Maybe they could have installed more bunks on the boats.
When did they roll it out? From what I can tell, this was in 2016? Why is there a shortage now then if it takes 3 years to get to captain?
Got interested, found this:

> Although the Coast Guard released Subchapter M on July 20, 2016, vessels had two years to meet the majority of the requirements — the deadline falling on July 20, 2018. The Coast Guard is trying to work with the tug and towing companies to make for a smooth transition into the new regulations with minimal downtime. The entirety of the law will be phased in over a six-year period.

> The next deadline for obtaining a certificate of inspection (COI) is in 2019. By July 22nd, 25 percent of towing and tugboat companies’ vessels must have a COI onboard. The percentage increases by 25 percent each year after until all vessels in the fleet have their COI onboard.

- https://www.mitags.org/subchapter-m-training/

I wrote that three years is theoretically the fastest one could get enough seatime. This would mean three years constantly at sea. Most take at least double that.
So that means that there should be new captains entering the workforce right around now (7 years post-fact, nevermind that the rules were probably not just sprung on you in 2016 but there was some forewarning even before then.)
I wonder if there were any unusual events happening in global markets 3 years ago?

A lack of prescience is not unique to tugboats.

Indeed. A lot of the captains retired early when things slowed down.