[taeric]

You really couldn't have picked a worse weekend to make this call. Barbie, alone, is setting record numbers that are showing a pretty good recovery for the past few years.

I'm open to attention spans changing. Or demographics changing. Or both. My money, though, is pandemic hangover. I'm struggling to see how anything else comes even close in explanation power to, "we were in a pandemic."

[paul7986]

Barbie yes ... but what about tons of others released mid may til now. Last summer in 2022 many movies made well over 100 million. So the pandemic?

Also Youtube is the most used streaming app followed by TikTok ... how many are watching for free? See Google results for this data https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=are%20people%20using%2...

My thoughts are based on the data above, other similar data Ive seen, my own shortening attention span and these years lackluster box-office compared to 2022 (movies from 2022 that opened above and or well above 100 million https://www.boxofficepro.com/the-top-10-movies-of-2022-at-th...)

To me Hollywood needs to worry even more so the writers, actors and etc ... a younger demographic the future's attention span looks to be elsewhere and they aren't paying to watch their media.

[taeric]

The numbers for movies took an obvious hit during the pandemic. There could be other explanations, of course; but it will be hard to avoid the elephant in the room that is the pandemic.

This will be true for basically all markets. There was an obvious shock during the past few years that is already explanatory for so many problems. No need to hunt for others.

But, even the article you linked is about how the market "continued its recovery in 2022." By the accounting, with the record breaking weekends we just had, this year seems set to be larger than last. Sure, it isn't larger than the past two combined, but that is hardly damning.

[paul7986]

Cool I'll stick to my out of the box thinking ...it's never popular on here but in the end future proves to be on the money

in a few years we will see many streamers Consolidate and to compete against the biggest streaming apps YouTube and TikTok more free offerings will be available and or cheaper ones. Hollywood 'S push to go AI is a smart money saving one

[taeric]

I confess I don't know what you are saying here. :(

I should also ack that I do actually subscribe to some twitch channels. I have no problem saying that these things are growing. Most evidence I am seeing shows not that they will supplant the old guard movies, but will grow along side them.

This is not much different to video games as entertainment. I remember concerns that they would somehow replace physical sports. If that is still a concern, it is hard to take seriously. Traditional sports have continued to grow to unheard of sizes.

Does this mean that hollywood and the like have nothing to fear? Not really. But licensing on movies and broadcasts being what they are, they have quite a moat on things.

[paul7986]

Im saying attention spans are changing and in the TikTok demographic they are used to short form content. Heck even youTube added stupid short form content videos which now I watch on there. YouTube and TikTok are the two top streaming apps and they are free. They are more used then Netflix and all the others. Thus all the others will start competing with YouTube and Tiktok by merging .. like Disney Plus merging with HBO Max. They will offer more free alternatives to compete with Youtube and Tiktok too. Hollywood will still make money of course, but not as much as they have use to been making when they are competing against the top two streaming apps (YouTube and Tiktok) that are free.

TLDR summary Hollywood's biggest competition isn't between themselves but YouTube and Tiktok and how they are shaping and changing media consumption habits and thus the media landscape. To me the data I pointed out already shows this including 2023 lackluster box office results compared to 2022.

[taeric]

The evidence just isn't there to believe that any of the small streaming offerings are competing with long form videos. "Funniest Home Videos" is, not shockingly, on the drop. But long form entertainment is literally doing better than it ever has.

Yes, YouTube and the like have more viewers than some of the paid services. They aren't, necessarily, making more money with those viewers. And even odds on whether they could keep the viewers as they try to make money. My bet would probably be no, all told. Consider, radio has been free for ages. Even broadcast television was free. This did little or nothing to prevent paid services from growing.