[somenameforme]

The "college is dead" crowd generally refer to people pursuing majors with no reasonable impact on their earnings, which is the overwhelming majority of people. Somebody who goes to school and decides to major in sociology because they find the classes fun, isn't going to be repaying their $200k of debt anytime soon.

[runako]

> pursuing majors with no reasonable impact on their earnings, which is the overwhelming majority of people

The data don't bear this out. Over a career, people with college degrees earn more than those without. Until and unless this changes, people are making the right choice going to college.

Caveats: it does need to be more widely communicated that getting into a college that costs $50k/year is a luxury good that not everyone will be able to afford. And the corollary: we need to resume amply funding our public institutions.

[somenameforme]

The raw educational attainment/income numbers suffer from severe selection bias. As but one example somebody with impaired intelligence is both probably not going to attend college, nor do economically well. But the fact he doesn't have a degree is obviously not the issue there. The question we want to ask ourselves is how would a person of at least average intelligence, motivated to work/learn, and so on do with vs without college.

So, for instance, how does a tradesman compare? The median income for somebody with a BS, employed full time, is $69k [1]. The median income for a plumber is $60k. [2] That's already pretty close, especially once you factor in 4 years of extra earnings vs 6 figures of debt. The BS may overcome the hole relatively late in their career, but again - it's close. However, there's a big catch: those numbers included STEM degrees. Remove STEM degrees and this isn't even close anymore.

I'm not arguing everybody should be a plumber, or anything of the sort. I am saying that college is a decision that should not be taken lightly, especially if somebody is not going to pursue STEM.

[1] - https://www.bls.gov/emp/chart-unemployment-earnings-educatio...

[2] - https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/plumbers...

[runako]

> The median income for somebody with a BS, employed full time, is $69k [1]. The median income for a plumber is $60k.

I know you're not arguing for everyone to become a plumber, so you should state that the chart you cite shows that high school diploma holders have a median income of $42k, or $27k less annually than those with a BS. Your data is showing why people go to college.

(All of this is before one accounts for the ability of BS-holders to move up to the higher rungs on the chart; most professional degrees require an undergraduate degree. If a 28-year-old has a BS and gets tired of his profession, he can go to e.g. law school or whatever and potentially earn more as well.)

[somenameforme]

I don't mean to strawman you, but I would certainly agree that people people are going to college because they're being misled by data. The reason for the huge gap between a plumber and a regular high school graduate is easy to understand. Plumbing is a skilled trade, so it basically filters out those incapable, or unwilling, to learn and apply themselves to something. These are the exact same things that even a 'useless' degree does. Even a person who majors in unwater basket weaving has shown themselves to hold those traits, and they'll serve them well in life - even if their degree and debt won't.

Oh neat thing on the law school comment. You don't actually need to go to law school, or school at all, to become a lawyer in some states, including California! In California one "just" needs to go through a legal apprenticeship program, and then pass the Bar. Just is in quotes there for good reason, but I think the world, particularly in education, is changing far more rapidly than we realize. Especially given the era of the internet, costly accreditation as opposed to skill tests (ideally with some apprenticeship component), just doesn't make any sense anymore.

[lapcat]

The author got a degree in economics and environmental studies but ended up teaching himself data science and machine learning later, after leaving college, and getting a job in data science is what allowed him to pay off his student loan debt. So the blog post is basically contradicting what you said here.

[somenameforme]

I think the 'meat' in these sort of topics all comes down to trying our hardest to dismiss outliers, and seeing what can be "reasonably" expected. Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Michael Dell, Larry Ellison, and a slew of others dropped out - and did okay. But of course that's a nonsensical argument for dropping out, because their outcomes were very atypical. Here too, high paying data science jobs is in no way a reasonable or normal career trajectory for somebody pursuing economics/environmental studies.

[lapcat]

I think perhaps I misinterpreted your previous comment.