[AndrewKemendo]

No these aren’t the same risk calculations and in fact use different measurement language - this is important because it’s an actual argument that is fallacious and regularly used.

This is the same poorly argued version of: “Milk is a gateway drug” when we’re evaluating a claim like “x% of y users used z drug before starting y, therefore z induces y” but actually irrelevant when asking for causal precursors.

That is a completely separate type of claim and argument.

“Risk to health” increases with abstention of water, the direct opposite of the mechanism for alcohol.

[Etheryte]

Your own argument is exactly the same though, just for alcohol.