[penteract]

Because we're talking about collisions, as opposed to comparing 2^64 independent pairs. With 2^128 possible values, if you've picked 2^63 distinct ones, the chance that a randomly selected value collides with one of those is 1 in 2^65. If none of your second batch of 2^63 collide with each other, that gives a 2^63/2^65 = 1/4 chance of one of them colliding with the first batch. Considering the possibility of collisions within each batch of 2^63 brings it closer to 1 in 2.