The Fermi paradox assumes intelligent life is common. However, perhaps its not. It certainly was not rare on the one planet we know for sure life exists. Biodiversity on earth right now nears 9 million forms, with probably at least that many now extinct. So out of all of those forms of life there is one that evolved the intelligence necessary to detect life outside of this planet.
So even with the age and size of the universe…and knowing the conditions necessary for life to evolve being somewhat rare, and the conditions necessary for intelligent life to evolve where life is being also some rare given our experience here on earth, it is not a huge leap to say that while life might be common in the universe, intelligent life could be uncommon, and if it is uncommon, we could be early enough to be one of few intelligent species out there. So we may not be detecting anybody because there is nobody out there to detect…just yet. Especially given distance and time and the fact that evidence we are capable of detecting is coming to us from an intelligent species may still be quite a time away since we are seeing their past.
At the same time multiplying enough small probabilities together we can also get a really small number quite quickly.
We can think or imagine whichever option is more fun and exciting. Without a single example of at least one confirmed alien life a lot of interesting possibilities are open.
not sure I agree, the universe could go on to be hundreds of billions or trillions of years old, against which 13 (or maybe 26) billion years is really the same scale as the first humans venturing out of Africa just a few tens of millenia ago.
I don't follow your reasoning at all. Unless intelligent life appeared everywhere in the universe spontaneously at the same instant, which seems rather unlikely, then someone has to be first.
If the universe has, on the scale of potentially uncountable trillions of years, just barely reached a stage where the probability of life appearing has risen above "infinitely small" then there's nothing chauvinistic or anthropocentric about speculating that we're it.
> Unless intelligent life appeared everywhere in the universe spontaneously at the same instant, which seems rather unlikely, then someone has to be first.
Yes, and for any given species, it is incredibly unlikely they are the first.
> If the universe has, on the scale of potentially uncountable trillions of years, just barely reached a stage where the probability of life appearing has risen above "infinitely small" then there's nothing chauvinistic or anthropocentric about speculating that we're it.
That is a humongous if that you have to prove, and it still would mean that it's very unlikely we are the first.
It's only unlikely that we are first if it's likely there are others. But we don't know that it's likely that there are others.
The argument "there's lots and lots of stars, therefore it's unlikely we are alone" is mathematically bogus. It presumes the chance that life arises at any given star can't be "too small". But there is little basis for making that assumption.
We don't need to be the first, we just need to be the first to survive and figure out some practical method of space travel. Space travel may even prove to be impossible for us.
"We don't need to be the first" to do what? We do need to be the first to be the first. If we're not the first, we're not the first, even if we figure out space travel.
The Fermi paradox assumes intelligent life is common. However, perhaps its not. It certainly was not rare on the one planet we know for sure life exists. Biodiversity on earth right now nears 9 million forms, with probably at least that many now extinct. So out of all of those forms of life there is one that evolved the intelligence necessary to detect life outside of this planet.
So even with the age and size of the universe…and knowing the conditions necessary for life to evolve being somewhat rare, and the conditions necessary for intelligent life to evolve where life is being also some rare given our experience here on earth, it is not a huge leap to say that while life might be common in the universe, intelligent life could be uncommon, and if it is uncommon, we could be early enough to be one of few intelligent species out there. So we may not be detecting anybody because there is nobody out there to detect…just yet. Especially given distance and time and the fact that evidence we are capable of detecting is coming to us from an intelligent species may still be quite a time away since we are seeing their past.