Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by jbandela1 1055 days ago
As I have grown older, I have realized more and more that the most important things can't really be measured directly.

Yes you can measure some related things that give you some hints about the thing you care about, but they are fragile. To borrow from Goodhart, if you make the related things a target, they will stop giving you even these hints.

This applies not just in software development, but life in general.

2 comments

I agree with you.

This is why I think the idea of technocracy or "evidence based politics" is ultimately a mirage. Sure you can maybe assess some policy but the metrics you're choosing to measure or optimise for are political by their very nature. One's evidence based policy isn't the same as mine.

Health-outcomes-wise it would be better to force everyone to eat salad or whatever but that's only one dimension to optimise on at the expense of freedom and life enjoyment.

Tying it back to tech maybe going down market improves your conversion and lowers your CAC but maybe you've just acquired a bunch of customers with low value, high churn and high costs.

Maybe the sales of Amazon Prime are showing gangbusters returns with the dark patterns but now people loathe your brand and are hoping to see you hit with an FTC banhammer.

There's no silver bullet to this stuff, sure you should probably measure it but ultimately you have to make a decision and be guided by gut instinct and beliefs.

Conversion rate and or sales. That's the most important thing. And it can be measured directly.

The problem is analyzing why or why not it's hitting your desired value.